The article analyses the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the Latvian economy. The basis of the research is the analysis of published evaluations of international organisations and foreign and local experts, economic studies, statistically confirmed facts, and regulatory documents. The aim of the study is to forecast the opportunities of economic growth in Latvia in the nearest future. The first part of the study identifies the economic and social impact factors of the Russian–Ukrainian war and their areas of influence. The second part of the study analyses the current development of the areas affected by the impact factors and predicts their future development. Possible changes in the gross domestic product are perceived as the resulting factor of the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war. The growth potential of the gross domestic product has been studied from the perspective of consumption and income, i.e., by evaluating possible changes in its consumption and income components.
The study concludes that despite disappointing forecasts of international organisations and individual experts, the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war in Latvia will be short-lived and moderate.